Big Ten Football is here and Now

[stevasaurus 23,274]

I've been working real hard on my football picks...and I am not appreciating this season at all. 
Brrly...all things being equal...the winner of the OSU vs M St. will represent the east in the Big Ten Game.  Your mistake is thinking that Iowa is in the same league as these 2 teams.    You should give some thought to which 1 loss team is going to the Rose Bowl. 

Edited November 2, 2015 by stevasaurus

[stevasaurus 23,274]

GAMES FOR WEEK #10  8 GAMES THIS WEEK 

PENN ST.  AT  NORTHWESTERN
ILLINOIS  AT  PURDUE
IOWA  AT  INDIANA
WISCONSIN  AT  MARYLAND
RUTGERS  AT  MICHIGAN
MICHIGAN ST.  AT  NEBRASKA
MINNESOTA  AT  OHIO ST.
NOTRE DAME  AT  PITTSBURGH

[Racinbob 11,919]

I'm thinking the pickins are pretty clear this week except for the two games with Illinois teams. Put those four teams in a bag, close eyes, pull one out......might as well go with the home teams.

Northwestern, Purdue, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Notre Dame

[stevasaurus 23,274]

PENN ST. ILLINOIS, INDIANA, WISCONSIN, RUTGERS, MICHIGAN ST. OHIO ST. NOTRE DAME 

A lot of hard work went into these picks...Stay Thirsty my friends. 

Edited November 2, 2015 by stevasaurus
changed my pick in the 5th game

[C-101plowerpower 1,606]

PENN ST.
ILLINOIS
IOWA
WISCONSIN
MICHIGAN
NEBRASKA
OHIO ST.
NOTRE DAME

[Brrly1 1,146]

Ok I'm going to make this short and very sweet. I'm liking the following  Penn State, Purdue, IOWA, Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State. I'm gonna take Pittsburgh to finish my picks for the week!!
As always, Go Hawkeyes!!!!  As far as not being in the same class as the other two is complete BS!!!!

[squonk 43,735]

Can I wait until the last minute to pick? Oh never mind............................ Don't want anyone thinking I'm a copy kat 

Penn ST.
Perdue
Iowa 
Wisc
Michigan 
Mich. St.
Ohio St.
Notre Dame

[JimD 3,347]

Northwestern, Purdue, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan St., Ohio St., Notre Dame.

[stevasaurus 23,274]

OMG...you Michigan and Iowa guys are way too sensitive.  You'd think you guys were playing the game instead of just being fans of a team.  

[Brrly1 1,146]

Wait a minute when someone stirs the pot, you don't expect a reaction?? I'm just saying 

[stevasaurus 23,274]

Well ya...I've been sitting here waiting for you to call me. 

[HorseFixer 2,013]

Duke, quit your whining. Here think about this one? What would happen if Ohio State beats Mich State, and then Michigan beats Ohio State, and Iowa wins out who is playing in the Big Ten championship game?? Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State??? Iowa does everything like they have been they'll be there but who's there opponent??
As always, Go Hawkeye's!!!!
 

 

I'm not whining John, As far as that Question its like asking who has won more Big Ten Games? Answer that one and you will find the answer to your question!   

See ya Bye ~Duke 

Oh and good reply Rob

Edited November 3, 2015 by HorseFixer

[Brrly1 1,146]

See that is the question. They would all have one loss in conference play, does non conference count towards the Big Ten play??? Or how do they decide in who plays in the Big Ten championship game??

[HorseFixer 2,013]

Ok John I thought about that last night and did some more research this morning! It looks like if all that happened it will go to some kind of GLORIOUS COMMITEE VOTE! This copied from some site! this whole  thing would be a real cluster F#@K  This article was written on Oct 20th By Luke Zimmerman SB Nation. From what I read here its almost certain That Ohio will go.

~Duke


 

Humor me for a second. I think if Ohio State and Michigan had played two weeks ago, the Wolverines would've won going away. This past weekend? Well, I'm more inclined to think if everything's in a vacuum, the Buckeyes would've had a much better chance of coming away victorious. As the season progresses, particularly if the Buckeyes are able to find consistency at quarterback and a stable identity offensively, the more talented team should take it.

But what if they don't?

As is known to happen in the storied rivalry, first-year head coaches tend to punch above their weight. Basically, in the modern era, if you aren't named John Cooper (sorry, not-interim-but-seriously-interim Luke Fickell) or Rich Rodriguez, you've got a pretty darn good shot at winning your first.

To say nothing of the advanced stats, which put OSU's odds of winning at just 29%.

Clearly no Ohio State fan wants to fathom the detriment to their well-being an offseason of condensed Michigan smugness would surely inflict, but let's say for argument's sake that Michigan does beat Ohio State in Ann Arbor the Saturday after Thanksgiving. And also for the purposes of this hypothetical, the Buckeyes handle their business a week prior at home on Senior Day against Sparty (which, FWIW, the same advanced metrics peg OSU's probability of victory at 75%). If all three teams win out, which team lays claim to the Big Ten East divisional championship, and who heads to Indianapolis to play who will almost certainly be Iowa?

Let's start with making sense of the Big Ten's divisional tiebreakers:

The following procedure will determine the representative from each division in the event of a tie:
(a) If two teams are tied, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.
(b) If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 7 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.
1. The records of the three tied teams will be compared against each other.
2. The records of the three tied teams will be compared within their division.
3. The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5, 6, and 7).
4. The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents.
5. The highest ranked team in the first College Football Playoff poll following the completion of Big Ten regular season conference play shall be the representative in the Big Ten Championship Game, unless the two highest ranked tied teams are ranked within one spot of each other in the College Football Playoff poll. In this case, the head-to-head results of the top two ranked tied teams shall determine the representative in the Big Ten Championship Game.
6. The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be the representative.
7. The representative will be chosen by random draw.

So, again, assuming Ohio State and Michigan State are 11-1 (7-1) and the Wolverines are 10-2 (7-1), how do these play out?

Tiebreaker 1. The records of the 3 tied teams compared against each other.

There was some debate among our staff as to what exactly this constituted. Historically, "the record" refers to conference play standings, as overall record shouldn't factor in until late in the process (particularly given the Big Ten recent emphasis on encouraging stronger out-of-conference scheduling). Another staff member argued it meant all games played.

We reached out to the Big Ten's league office, which clarified it referred, very literally, to the three team's records against one another. That would mean:

Ohio State 1-1
Michigan State 1-1
Michigan 1-1

On to the next one.

Tiebreaker 2. The records of the 3 tied teams compared within their division.

This is, for all intents and purposes, their divisional records. Since again in our hypothetical scenario, none of the three teams lose again otherwise, we're looking at another draw.

Ohio State 5-1
Michigan State 5-1
Michigan 5-1

To No. 3:

Tiebreaker 3. The records of the 3 teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5, 6, and 7).

This one proves to be a bit redundant. Since for our example's purposes, all three of the Big Ten East's "Big 3" win out, they're not going to have a team that holds a win over any of them that can be used to break this tie. We're also less inclined to have a tie in the first place unless all three lose another, and that seems like the most unlikely of scenarios.

Tiebreaker 4. The records of the 3 teams will be compared against all common conference opponents.

This one proves to be pretty short. The only common intradivisional opponents any of the three schools share is Minnesota, whom both Ohio State and Michigan face. Assuming a win for both, we're on to Tiebreaker 5.

Tiebreaker 5. The highest ranked team in the first College Football Playoff poll following the completion of Big Ten regular season conference play shall be the representative in the Big Ten Championship Game, unless the two highest ranked tied teams are ranked within one spot of each other in the College Football Playoff poll. In this case, the head-to-head results of the top two ranked tied teams shall determine the representative in the Big Ten Championship Game.

This is where we should finally start to see some separation between our three.

While the Wolverines are having a renaissance season for the ages, their two aggregate losses puts them behind the eight ball here. While the committee could reward a one-loss Alabama over an undefeated team playing uneven football against a weaker schedule (see, Florida State last year) for seeding purposes, it's unlikely to favor a two-loss team over a one-loss one, especially when you factor in one of those two losses would have come head-to-head against Michigan State.

Even if Michigan reverts to the same form it displayed against Northwestern, Maryland, and BYU as though the State game ending never happened, and somehow Ohio State and Michigan State win out (sans those two games) and look underwhelming doing so, the committee outright dismissing the MSU-UM game's outcome still seems like a stretch.

So what about Ohio State vs. Michigan State? Again, in our hypothetical, the Buckeyes would win that one outright. How we get there aside, and given Michigan's two overall loses, the Buckeyes would be the team I'd wager most likely to benefit from the committee determining the Big Ten East's Big Ten Championship Game representative.

But the playoff committee's deliberation picking a winner raises all kinds of logistical questions.

As things currently stand, the committee won't release its penultimate rankings until Tuesday, Dec. 1 at 7 p.m. ET. That's a full 72 hours plus after the Ohio State-Michigan game. Would as many as two (if not three) teams have to prepare as though they were heading to Indianapolis without knowing for sure until Tuesday night? And what about fans looking to secure tickets and shore up travel logistics? With the committee usually not even flying to Dallas to deliberate until that Monday, expedited rankings might not be feasible or realistic.

But what if somehow the two highest ranked of Ohio State, Michigan State, and Michigan are within one of one another in that week's College Football Playoff rankings? What then?

Well, we'd go back to the head-to-head between those two teams and the representative would be determined. Sadly, we're spared from Tiebreaker 6 (overall winning percentage), which would smile favorably on hypothetical Ohio State and Michigan State but not Michigan, and to the late Bo Schembechler's delight, Tiebreaker 7 (random draw).

* * *

So if any one of the three remaining teams loses a game it isn't expected to, all this goes out the window. But if college football plays out how we expect it might, we're looking at a tiny bit of college football in 2008 redux. Whether it's Ohio State, Michigan State, or Michigan in Indianapolis, if everyone's 7-1 in conference play, somebody's going to have a beef about being left out.

 

 

[RMCIII 838]

Won't really matter when it comes down to it. OSU will have run the table and most likely Iowa will have done the same thing. Nothing Doin' OSU vs. Iowa in the Conference Game.
Duke had to think awful hard to come to a conclusion that would never play out!

RCIII

[stevasaurus 23,274]

Hey Rob, I spent a few hours yesterday trying to find out how this was going to work, and I couldn't really find anything.  At least Bob found what looks like the way they will screw things up.  I was trying to find out how they would pick for the Rose Bowl also.  Still do not know that one. 

[squonk 43,735]

I would like iowa to go to the Rose Bowl. Brrly can make the trip and hob knob with all those Hollywood types. Who knows, Horror Movies are making a comeback!  Just kiddin John! 

[RMCIII 838]

Well, in all honesty, if OSU, or MSU go undefeated, they will be in for the final 4. That means The Rose Bowl would not have the Big 10 Champs and therefore would have the option to chose another team like they did last year.

RCIII 

[Brrly1 1,146]

Ok, what's wrong with Iowa going undefeated why wouldn't they go sounds kind of biased to me. Right now I should be screaming from the rafters and I am in my own way, kind of quietly!!! The Hawkeyes are moving along quite nicely, kind of nervous about broadcasting it because I just don't want to mess things up!! Keep winning guys!!! See you at the Championship game!!!!!   AS always, Go Hawkeye's!!!

[JimD 3,347]

John I gotta say I'm happy or you that Iowa is having such a great season. You have waited quite awhile for this. Enjoy it my friend.

[Racinbob 11,919]

Well, in all honesty, if OSU, or MSU go undefeated, they will be in for the final 4. That means The Rose Bowl would not have the Big 10 Champs and therefore would have the option to chose another team like they did last year.

RCIII 

I believe I'm correct in saying the Rose Bowl was a playoff semi final game last season so the teams weren't selected the usual way. Yea, there could have been a Big 10 team there but for whatever reason OSU played in the other semi final. This season the Rose Bowl isn't a playoff game so the teams will be the usual Big 10/Pac12 teams. But if the Big 10 champ will be in the playoffs they won't go to the Rose Bowl. Based on their schedule Iowa should win out. In all likelihood  it will be either OSU or MSU on the other side but.....this is college football. It's also likely that the Big 10 champ will be playoff bound. If so, wouldn't the logical thing be the loser of that game go to the Rose Bowl? Isn't it just that simple? My head hurts...........

One thing is for sure. There's some great games coming up between OSU, MSU and Michigan. I'm thinking this thread is going to be on fire. ..............................................

[stevasaurus 23,274]

Right...if Iowa, MSU or OSU wins the Big Ten championship game and is undefeated, that team will "probably" be one of the four playoff teams  I would think that the team that loses the Big Ten Championship game would go to the Rosebowl...but not necessarily...MSU went to the Rosebowl 2 years ago, and if you do not count last year (because that bowl was a playoff bowl, a team that is tied with MSU might be the team picked.  In case of a tie, the team that did not go the year before would go.  On the other hand, one of the teams in the BTC game may end up 12 and 1...the winner maybe being 13 and 0 and 1 team that did not play in the BTC game being 11 and 1.  Now who goes???

It looks like Iowa just has to win out and end up 13 and 0!!  go for it John 

[RMCIII 838]

Yep that was a playoff game, you are correct. But The Rose Bowl does not have to have a Big 10 team if the team is not the conference champ. Same with the Pac. So potentially the Rose Bowl could have someone that is not the Big 10 again this year.

RCIII

[stevasaurus 23,274]

And then there is this thought...If Iowa shoots the moon and ends up 13 - 0 by beating either an undefeated MSU or OSU...Iowa still may not make the final four Playoff.  I think they would have to move up in the rankings to like 5 or 6 before the BTC game to make it to the playoffs.  Sorry John, but the power rankings are going to favor MSU and OSU...strength of schedule.  One big problem Iowa has...Clemson (ACC) beat Notre Dame and is sparring with OSU for the Top Spot.  You have 5 power conferences trying to squeeze into 4 playoff spots....and I do not think that the Big 12 conference has a Conference Championship game (3 teams are undefeated).  The Pac 12 does not have an undefeated team this year, but the committee does like Stanford. 
Bottom line...4 games left and a lot of the undefeateds play their tough games at the end and some play each other.  Buckle in and grab some Rock & Rye.  This is a different year. 

Edited November 5, 2015 by stevasaurus

[squonk 43,735]