Early March Snow Storm

[1056 20]

Im hearing rumers of a BIG early March snow storm for the N.E.

Anyone else hearing this ? B)

[stevebo-(Moderator) 8,531]

The last storm a few weeks ago they were calling for 12-18 inches and we ended up with 3

Weathermen suck-

I have not heard of that storm however very excited if we do have it. Ready to go with the 2 stage and cab on the the 520, plow on the 314 and loader on the auto 18 oh yeah can't forget the plow on the Economy :party:

[rickv1957 74]

Dont know about you guys,Im ready for spring! Rick

[hotrodmerc 1]

Dont know about you guys,Im ready for spring! Rick

I'll second that!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Suburban 550 28]

Dont know about you guys,Im ready for spring! Rick

Someone just told me the farmers almanac is predicting a big storm sometime in the beginning of March. I'm with Rick on saying I'm ready for spring. This cold weather is really startin' to get to me.

[sscotsman 186]

I dont think anyone can accurately predict the weather more than a week in advance..

even a week is iffy..

could happen, but IMO is just as likely to not happen.

Scot

[chazm 413]

This cold weather is really startin' to get to me.

I'm with ya Ray - I spent this afternoon clearing 3 ft of snow off my trailer <_<

Starting to be a pain in the azz

Chaz B)

[rwilson 128]

yes the northeast has had some snow this year but not where I am in north central pa. so a good storm would be good. I mean 18 miles on the snowmobile?? Come on!

[d180man 5]

Dont know about you guys,Im ready for spring! Rick

Hi you sead it rick !! :clap:

[1056 20]

People are talking about a big storm for the first weekend of March.

This forecast might be setting it up

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Area Forecast Discussion

Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off

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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --000

FXUS61 KCTP 201810

AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA

110 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2010

.SYNOPSIS...

-- Changed Discussion --HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE

WEEKEND PROVIDING FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL

TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT THROUGH THE MID

MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH A

SECONDARY LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CAROLINA OUTER BANKS

TUESDAY. THIS ENTIRE...SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A

WINTRY MIX TO THE COMMONWEALTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. COLDER

WEATHER WITH MAINLY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE

WEEK.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --VIZ SHOTS SHOW CLOUDS FORMING ON THE SW-NE RIDGES FROM BEDFORD-

SOMERSET COUNTIES UP INTO CENTRE COUNTY...BUT THEY ARE MAINLY MID

AND HIGH CLOUDS WHICH MAKES IT INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THEY SEEM

TO BE BEING FORCED BY RIDGES ON THE ORDER 2000-2500`! OTHERWISE

SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING OVER

THE NW MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 40 IN THE SE. OTHER THAN THE INTERESTING

CLOUD FORMATION...NOT MUCH ELSE OF SIGNIFICANCE TO NOTE TODAY.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD WILL BE CLOUDS AND TEMPS WITH

MIDWEST SHORTWAVE PRODUCING LYRD MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACRS THE OH VLYPER LATEST IR STLT IMAGERY...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO INVADE THE

WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE BY THIS AFTN. NAM/GFS MID AND UPPER

LEVEL RH SUGGESTS LINGERING CLOUD COVER OVR THE UPPER OH VLY INTO

TONIGHT. LLVL STRATO CU MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ALONG AND

NORTH/EAST OF ELZ-AVP LINE...PERHAPS DROPPING A LITTLE FURTHER

SOUTH INTO NCENT PENN OVERNIGHT BASED ON HI RES MDL DATA.

STAYED CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS TDY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER

850/900MB TEMPS OFF-SET TO SOME DEGREE BY A PARTLY TO MOSTLY

CLOUDY SKY. MIN TEMPS A LITTLE LESS STRAIGHTFORWARD GIVEN CLOUD

CONCERNS IN THE WEST...BUT AREAS THAT ARE ABLE TO RADIATE COULD

EASILY DROP WELL INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS OVR THE ALLEGHENIES

CLOSEST TO AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE AXIS.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --SUNDAY...AND MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE MOST TRANQUIL

WEATHER PERIOD FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 7 DAYS...THANKS TO THE SFC HIGH

MOVING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE WEST TO

NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY...BEFORE GOING NEARLY CALM AT NIGHT.

MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND

AROUND 40F ACRS THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL BE A FEW TO SVRL DEG F ABOVE

NORMAL.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE LWRMISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

QUITE AN INTERESTING AND LIKELY VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD SHAPING

UP FOR AT LEAST THE EARLY TO MID WEEK AS THE NRN ATLANTIC/GREENLAND

REX BLOCK AT 500 MB RETROGRADES ABOUT 15 DEG LON...TO ABOUT 60 DEG W

MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS WILL ACT TO DRIVE COLDER LLVL AIR SSW FROM ERN CANADA AND

EVENTUALLY CREATE AN INCREASING STRONG EASTERLY FETCH OFF THE

ATLANTIC AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW PROGGED BY THE 00Z

GEFS/GFS AND ECMWF TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH (JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC

SEABOARD) LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THIS IMPETUS FOR THIS SLOW NWD MOVEMENT OF THE COASTAL LOW (AND

LIKELY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE 925-850 EASTERLY WIND ANOMALYTO ABOUT -3 TO -4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)

WILL BE ONE OF THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVES/COLDEST 500 MB TEMPS WE`VE

SEEN SO FAR THIS WINTER - DROPPING SSE FROM NCENT CANADA. A POCKET

OF NEAR -40C AIR WILL BREAK OFF (FROM THE MAIN POOL OF ARCTIC AIR

CONTAINING 850 AND 500 MB TEMPS < -30 AND -44C RESPECTIVELY)...THEN

HEAD SWD ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY...AND HELP TO CARVE OUT A DEEP

UPPER TROUGH (-2 TO -3 ST DEVIATIONS AT 500 MB) ACROSS THE ENTIRE

EASTERN U.S. DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH NUMEROUS MTN SNOW SHOWERS WILL

RETURN FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THIS TROUGH GRINDS SLOWLY

EAST FROM THE GLAKES AND MIDWEST...TWD THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.

NOW FOR THE SPECIFICS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST FOR CENTRAL PENN...

THE INITIAL SRN STREAM SFC LOW PRECEDED BY AN AREA OF RELATIVELY

LIGHT/WARM ADVECTION PRECIP (WITH LITTLE OR NO EASTERLY LLVL FLOW)

WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE LOW/MID OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY.

PERIODS OF MIXED PRECIP WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SRN PENN

COUNTIES...AND A CHANGEOVER TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS

POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT (MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ

VALLEY) WHERE SFC TEMPS WILL CREST IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S MONDAY

(AND 925 TO 850 MB WET BULBS WILL WARM TO ABOUT 1-2C).

FURTHER NORTH...CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS/EC AND GEFS IS FOR THE

925-850 MB LAYER WET BULB TEMPS TO STAY NEAR...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW

FREEZING. THIS WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF SNOW...MIXING AT TIMES WITH

SLEET/FZRA NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. A FEW...TO

PERHAPS AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE MONDAY

AFTERNOON/NIGHT ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF PENN...WHILE A COATING TO 2

INCHES (TOPPED BY SOME SLEET AND A THIN LAYER OF FZRA) WILL OCCUR

ACROSS THE SOUTH.

AS THE SECONDARY LOW GETS GOING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY

NIGHT...THE MAIN EMPHASIS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL SHIFT TO THE

ERN HALF OF THE CWA (PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS THE CENTRAL MTNS)...AS

THE NOSE OF THE STRENGTHENING LLVL (925 MB) EASTERLY WIND ANOMALYLIFTS NWD ALONG THE MID PIEDMONT REGION OF MD...PENN AND NEW

JERSEY.

PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE PAINTED INTO OUR GRIDS FOR TUESDAY

THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS...AND TO THE EAST OF THE MIDDLE

SUSQ VALLEY. SHOULD LATER RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND TWD A SLOW NWDMOVING SECONDARY LOW HUGGING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS ENERGY IS

INJECTED INTO THIS SYSTEM FROM THE WEST...IT WOULDN`T SURPRISE ME TO

SEE ONE OF THE BIGGEST SNOWS OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE MIDDLE SUSQ

VALLEY AND NCENT MTNS BY LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. GRANTED THE

TOTAL SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF AROUND

36-42 HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN I HAVE AT THIS POINT IS WHETHER TO

COMPLETELY "BUY INTO" SUCH A SLOW MOVING SECONDARY SFC LOW IN THE

RATHER STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT...WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AMPLIFYING

MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH. THE 06Z GFS`S QPF FIELD CONTINUES TO HAVE A

SOMEWHAT "SUSPICIOUS LOOK" OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK NEAR AND EAST OF

THE VA COAST TUES/TUE NIGHT.

MORE COLD AIR IS POISED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM

FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL GFS AND

ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST

LATER IN THE WEEK. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT THIS SHOULD STAY

PRIMARILY EAST OF OUR CWA...POSSIBLY BRUSHING EASTERN PA WITH SOME

ADDITIONAL PRECIP . HOWEVER...THERE IS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY

AT THAT RANGE..AND THIS BEARS KEEPING AN EYE ON.

THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT FOR LATER IN THE COMING WEEK WILL BE A GUSTY

NORTHWEST WIND (LIKELY TOPPING IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE) WITH PERIODS

OF OROGRAPHIC/LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES AND

ESPECIALLY LAUREL HIGHLANDS WHERE THEY`VE CERTAINLY SEEN MORE THAN

THEIR SHARE OF SNOWFALL THIS SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN IS TRANSITIONING FROM NW FLOW TO

A WARM ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. HIGH

PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN KY WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NEWD THRU

SUNDAY PROVIDING MAINLY VFR FLYING. MEANWHILE...A STORM WILL

EMERGE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND STRENGTHEN NEWD THROUGH THE

SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GRT LKS/OH VLY BY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM

WILL LIKELY BRING WDSPRD IFR/MVFR CONDS IN WINTRY PRECIP MON-TUE.

XPC INC LYRD MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER TDY-TNT WITH BASES GENERALLY

AOA 10KFT AGL. STRATO CU SHOULD STAY NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA AS

LLVL OVER-LAKE FETCH REMAINS ALIGNED ACRS HURON/ONTARIO. DIURNALINC IN WNW SFC WNDS 8-12KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS 15-20KTS. THE MAIN

UNCERTAINTIES REVOLVE AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CLOUDS IN THE

WEST TONIGHT AND PERHAPS SOME POCKETS OF FOG SIMILAR TO WHAT WE

SAW EARLIER TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON...CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP

OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE SW.

TUE...BECOMING VFR EAST OF THE MTS...BUT MVFR AND IFR IN THE

MTS WITH CONTINUING SNOW SHOWERS.

WED...MAINLY MVFR WITH SNOW SHWRS.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE

NEAR TERM...LA CORTE

SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT

LONG TERM...LAMBERT/EVANEGO

AVIATION...LA CORTE

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

National Weather Service

National Weather Service National Headquarters

1325 East West Highway

Silver Spring, MD 20910

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Web Master's E-mail: NWS Internet Services Team

Page last modified: Feb 16th, 2010 21:51 UTC

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[Lane Ranger 11,395]

Better get all your equipment ready for that storm -just in case!

B)

[1056 20]

Our local weather man said to look for a possible storm on the 3rd or 4th :party: