"Big Changes Ahead"

[GlenPettit 1,714]

 

 

Some of this likely will not turn out quite as planned, but it's interesting, just the same.

In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide.  Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt.  What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years - and most people won't see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on film again?

 

Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.

 

Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

 

Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. 

 

Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.

 

Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. 

 

In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. 

 

So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain. 

 

Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

 

Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's license and may never own a car. 

 

It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 mi (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million mi (10 million km). That will save a million lives each year.

 

Most car companies will probably become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build an efficient car/computer on wheels. 

 

Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla.

 

Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the auto insurance will become 90% cheaper. Their entire car insurance business model will disappear. 

 

Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood and in a smaller-efficient.

 

Electric cars will become mainstream by 2025. Cities will be less noisy because the new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact. 

 

Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can't last. Technology will take care of that strategy. 

 

 

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

 

Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it. 

 

It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free. Goodbye, medical establishment. 

 

3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes. 

 

Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.

At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. 

 

In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.

 

Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? 

 

If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.

 

Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.

 

Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields. 

 

Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal, is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).

 

There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you�re in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they�re telling the truth and when they�re not.

 

Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency. Of the world.

 

Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more that one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.

 

Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education. 

 

Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child learns at school in First World countries. We have already released our software in Indonesia and will release it in Arabic, Suaheli and Chinese this Summer, because I see an enormous potential. We will give the English app for free, so that children in Africa can become fluent in English within half a year.

 

Boom!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



 

 

[WHX?? 46,775]

Interesting things to ponder Glen

[SPINJIM 1,978]

Self-driving cars ?   I enjoy driving.   Why would I want a robot to do it for me.    Next, they'll have a robot to make love for us.

 

Someday all of our muscles will atrophy, except for our thumb muscles that operate a stupid smart phone.

 

[Jerry77 1,218]

3 hours ago, GlenPettit said:

Some of this likely will not turn out quite as planned, but it's interesting, just the same.

Interesting?? I find it downright scary.  Human ingenuity has already taken a huge hit with the current generation because of micro-processing.      

[ACman 7,507]

Me personally , I hope I'm dead and gone before all this happens . I really do hope I don't have any grandchildren , so they don't have to deal with this crap hole of the world we live in now . These smart phones are just making kids stupider , because they don't have to think about answer , they just google it . The country is being run by energy co. , banks , pharmaceutical co. , and insurance companies  lining the pocketbooks of politicians ! Look and see who your  congressman and senator's biggest contributors are .  I've seen this firsthand testifying at a hearing at the capital  and l wanted to see who their biggest contributors were , guess who , insurance companies .I've been warned by my lawyers to stay off the Computer because the insurance company uses  algorithms and they just keep getting more advanced to keep track of me and my families every move .  What do they think , I'm just going to get up and walk .  I constantly feel like I'm under a microscope and have to watch my every move and how I word things . As careful as I am I'm sure they've already  found me on this forum.  It seems that more technology becomes available the less freedoms we have . It's  scary to think how easy it is to  keep track of someone. When and if the world economy implodes guess who was going to survive.  It's going to be the people of Third World countries and self-reliant people who don't use technology and do things with their brains , hands , and can live off the land .  Sorry for the rant, just my  !  Believe me I hate talking politics and religion and I feel everybody has the right to think and say what they want . This is the U.SA.  

 

Mods feel free to delete this if it's too political , but this forum is the best head therapy I've found .  It's what keeps me sane   !

Edited September 27, 2016 by ACman

[clueless 2,898]

We can only hope the zombie apocalypse comes soon, by the way can a 3D printer make a carter #16 carb, may be needing one soon.

[Aldon 4,826]

Reminds me of the tower of Babel. Whenever we get too cocky, the playing field is reset.

[JimD 3,345]

I wish I knew what the heck you were all talking about. I still can't read Glens post.

[C-101plowerpower 1,605]

 

about those robotic cars you call, how the hell am i supposed to go pick up a wheel horse with one of those?

 

Edited September 26, 2016 by C-101plowerpower

[wallfish 15,919]

7 minutes ago, JimD said:

I wish I knew what the heck you were all talking about. I still can't read Glens post.

Me either, hence my first reply.

I'm using Firefox browser.

[tunahead72 2,341]

I'm with John and Jim, I don't see Glen's article on my laptop, but I just checked and I can see it on my iPhone.

 

[Racinbob 10,277]

Me four. No can see.

[953 nut 51,682]

7 hours ago, wallfish said:

There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).

I am all for progress;      but, this is going too far!         Are you are trying to scare me or make me glad I'm old?

[wallfish 15,919]

7 minutes ago, 953 nut said:

I am all for progress;      but, this is going too far!         Are you are trying to scare me or make me glad I'm old?

Hmmmm, Something definitely fishy going on, Pun intended.

You quoted me as writing that insect thing but I never wrote that nor do I see it written in this thread by anyone else. It's like MAGIC

[953 nut 51,682]

14 minutes ago, wallfish said:

You quoted me as writing that insect thing

I guess that artificial intelligence thing has taken over! The quote came from Glenn's inserted posting.        

[Daddy Don 891]

When I was in grade school it took a giant building to house the first computer. Now we hold one in our hands. Glenn has hit the future on the head. I will not be around to see all this happen and I am glad I won't be. The problem is I have three grandkids and I can't keep from thinking about what it will be like for them.

Glenn you will wake up a lot of people with this post. Thanks

[oldredrider 2,547]

Right along these lines, very few people know or realize that gasoline powered vehicles are MANDATED to be off the American highways by 2035. 

[WHX?? 46,775]

Just now, oldredrider said:

are MANDATED to be off the American highways by 2035.

By who ...Donald or Hilliary???

[oldredrider 2,547]

Actually it was Hillary's husband. 

[WHX?? 46,775]

Go figure...

[wallfish 15,919]

52 minutes ago, 953 nut said:

I guess that artificial intelligence thing has taken over! The quote came from Glenn's inserted posting.

Ah Ha!  I only see a blank post for Glenn's and the one I copied.

Can you please quote the whole thing and post it? Curious if it will show up if you do.

[wallfish 15,919]

Nope!

[wallfish 15,919]

Still nothing, but thanks. Guess it will just remain a mystery.

[SylvanLakeWH 24,131]

so I can just 3D print a new WH? What's that gonna do to our tractor values???

 

Edited September 26, 2016 by SylvanLakeWH

[953 nut 51,682]

Here is a link to the text for those who can't see it.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/welcome-exponential-age-4th-industrial-revolution-mehul-desai